This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

We use a continuous-time approximation approach to analyze dynamics of a model where government adaptively learns the Phillips curve while running monetary policy (Phellps problem). This approach is based on approximating the discrete-time dynamics with learning by a limiting continuous-time...

In this paper we provide explicit characterization of the escape dynamics for the Phellps problem of government controlling inflation with adaptive learning of the approximate Phillips curve, alternative to the one considered by Cho, Williams and Sargent (2002). Our approach is based on...

In this paper we provide an explicit characterization of the escape dynamics for the Phellps problem of government controlling inflation with adaptive learning of the approximate Phillips curve, alternative to the one considered by Cho, Williams and Sargent (2002) (CWS in sequel). Our approach...

In this paper we provide an explicit characterization of the escape dynamics for the Phellps problem of government controlling inflation with adaptive learning of the approximate Phillips curve, alternative to the one considered by Cho, Williams and Sargent (2002) (CWS in sequel). Our approach...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a...