This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing multivariate density forecasts with different predictive copulas, focusing on specific parts of the copula support. The tests are framed in the context of the Kullback–Leibler Information Criterion,...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control' (forthcoming).<P> This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts, focusing on a specific part of the joint distribution....</p>

This paper develops a novel approach to modeling and forecasting realized volatility (RV) measures based on copula functions. Copula-based time series models can capture relevant characteristics of volatility such as nonlinear dynamics and long-memory type behavior in a flexible yet parsimonious...

This paper develops a novel approach to modeling and forecasting realized volatility (RV) measures based on copula functions. Copula-based time series models can capture relevant characteristics of volatility such as nonlinear dynamics and long-memory type behavior in a flexible yet parsimonious...

Using an Euler discretisation to simulate a mean-reverting CEV process gives rise to the problem that while the process itself is guaranteed to be nonnegative, the discretisation is not. Although an exact and efficient simulation algorithm exists for this process, at present this is not the case...

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

Managers have the choice to take the firm private themselves in a management buy-out or to seek private equity backing. We argue that managers seek private equity backing in case they are more constrained to finance the deal themselves. We confirm the hypothesis using a sample of UK...

Over the last decade, the going private market has experienced a considerable boom in size and also has become more interesting for private equity investors that are looking to partner with incumbent management. This offers managers the choice to take the firm private themselves in a traditional...

This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instability in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regression specification that is put forward allows for occasional...

Over the last decade, the going private market has experienced a considerable boom in size and also has become more interesting for private equity investors that are looking to partner with incumbent management. This offers managers the choice to take the firm private themselves in a traditional...