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How Strongly are Business Cycles and Financial Cycles Linked in the G7 Countries?
Antonakakis, Nikolaos; Breitenlechner, Max; Scharler, Johann - Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Fakultät für … - 2014
for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth evolve rather heterogeneously over … time and across countries, and increase during extreme economic events. ii) Spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth … shorty before and on the onset of the global financial crisis, the link between credit growth and GDP growth becomes more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010839598
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What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?
Claessens, Stijn; Kose, Ayhan; Terrones, Marco E - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497835
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FINANCIAL CYCLES – THE SYNCHRONIZATION WITH FINANCIAL CRISES
DONATH, Liliana; CERNA, Veronica MIHUȚESCU; OPREA, … - In: Management Intercultural (2014) 31, pp. 263-273
2008–09 global crisis is the latest in a long list of economic events shaped by cycles in financial markets. Its severity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011079428
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Asset prices, credit and the business cycle
Chen, Xiaoshan; Kontonikas, Alexandros; Montagnoli, Alberto - In: Economics Letters 117 (2012) 3, pp. 857-861
This paper uses the multivariate unobserved components model with phase shifts to analyse the interaction of interest rates, output, asset prices and credit in the US. We find close linkages amongst cyclical fluctuations in the variables.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010594199
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Eurozone cycles: an analysis of phase synchronization
Granville, Brigitte; Hussain, Sana - Centre for Globalisation Research (CGR), School of … - 2014
This paper examines the synchronization in business and financial cycles both across and within a representative sample of Eurozone countries.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941622
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher - İktisat Bölümü, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010859370
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Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar S. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083323
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Disentangling Business Cycles and Macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and an Unobserved Components Models Approaches
Allegret, Jean-Pierre - In: Journal of Economic Integration 22 (2007), pp. 482-514
This paper analyses the feasibility of a monetary union within the Mercosur, focusing on cycle synchronicity. Three questions are addressed, concerning respectively the features of shocks hitting each member, the impact of exchange rate regime differences on countries’ responses and the share...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009393862
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Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR
Allégret, Jean-Pierre; Sand-Zantman, Alain - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Économique Lyon … - 2008
This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056855
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher - Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National … - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011185996