The existing empirical literature on Taylor-type interest rate rules has failed to achieve a robust consensus. Indeed, the relatively common finding that the Taylor principle does not hold has fueled a degree of controversy in the field. We attribute these mixed estimation results to a raft of...

The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision establishes new procedures for assessing a credit risk and capital adequacy requirements. For corporate client Basel II model suggests that a bank and its supervisor determine four parameters and...

The paper describes a model of a new type for valuation of risky bonds and loans that we call a Bayesian Multi-Period (BMP) model. BMP is neither a structural model nor a reduced form and not a Merton-type model at all. BMP proceeds from the concept of a risky bond (loan) value as the Net...

The paper assesses the validity and accuracy of measuring risks of individual borrowers and credit portfolios by means of the Basel II credit risk model. The assessment method consists in parallel estimation of the same risks by means of exact probabilistic models. We find that the Basel II...

The paper describes model of a new type for valuation of risky bonds and loans that we call Bayesian Multi-Period (BMP) model. BMP is neither structural model nor reduced form and not a Merton-type model at all. BMP proceeds from concept of a risky bond (loan) value as Net Present Value (NPV) of...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Based on a more realistic assumption, we modify the Taylor regression. The modified Taylor regression gives an explanation of why the (standard) Taylor regression is spurious (in the econometric sense, i.e. no stable relationship among the variables of interest) and, at the same time, a solution...

This paper characterizes the monetary policy in Brazil through a forward-looking Taylor-rule-type reaction function before and after the Real plan, which stabilized inflation in July 1994. The results show that the interest rate response to inflation was greater than one-to-one before...

We aim at characterizing the Classical Gold Standard period (CGS) in order to verify if it is endowed with statistical regularity. We study the statistical properties of two-state annual transition matrices of countries switching from a sound state to a crisis state focusing on Reinhart and...

El presente estudio plantea una comparación entre el impacto que han tenido los choques externos en la región latinoamericana y en el este asiático, para el periodo comprendido entre 1995 y 2009. Con el fin de evaluar si dicho impacto ha sido diferente en cada región, se plantea la...