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against failing in the task and also less inclined to buy travel insurance. This suggests intrinsic optimism influences … insurance demand and diminishes adverse selection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128051
Instrumental variable estimation requires untestable exclusion restrictions. With policy effects on individual outcomes, there is typically a time interval between the moment the agent realizes that he may be exposed to the policy and the actual exposure or the announcement of the actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763520
Instrumental variable estimation requires untestable exclusion restrictions. With policy effects on individual outcomes, there is typically a time interval between the moment the agent realizes that he may be exposed to the policy and the actual exposure or the announcement of the actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792073
In this paper the effects of the introduction of the so called “pay per use” -insurance products are examined. These … insurance-premium paid. Since there is a positive correlation between mileage and the risk of causing an accident the refund is … characteristics of “pay per use” policy-holders and “traditional” policy- holders. Therefore a random sample of 4,000 car-insurance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099745
This paper presents a model and an experiment, both suggesting that wishful thinking is a pervasive phenomenon that aect decisions large and small. Agents in the model start out with state-dependent payos, and behave as if high-payo states are more likely. Subsequent choices maximize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903414
Previous work on the Dunning–Kruger effect has shown that poor performers often show little insight into the shortcomings in their performance, presumably because they suffer a double curse. Deficits in their knowledge prevent them from both producing correct responses and recognizing that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051336
Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556666
The so-called unskilled-and-unaware problem was experimentally identified a decade ago: The unskilled are seemingly afflicted by a double curse because they also seem unaware of their (relative) lack of skills. Numerous authors have elaborated on this problem – experimentally as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005357525
In a series of articles and manuscripts (e.g., Kruger & Dunning, 1999, Dunning et al.,2003, Ehrlinger et al., 2005), Dunning, Kruger and their collaborators argued that the unskilled lack the metacognitive ability to realize their incompetence. We propose that the unskilled-and-unaware problem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086631
Do individuals have unbiased beliefs, or are they over- or underconfident? Overconfident individuals may fail to prepare optimally for the future, and economists who infer preferences from behavior under the assumption of unbiased beliefs will make mistaken inferences. This paper documents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012719012