In this study, we test the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis on the secular decline of relative primary commodity prices with the extended Grilli and Yang (1988) data set, ending at 2010.” Rather than asking whether it holds for the whole sample period, we examine if the hypothesis holds sometimes...

We apply linear and non-linear Granger causality tests to four U.S. price indices and 31 commodity series, which expand a 54-year period (January 1957–December 2011). We find evidence of linear Granger causality mostly from individual commodities to price indices. The latter, however, seem to...

In this paper, we address in more detail the question raised in Wacker (2011b): why does foreign direct investment (FDI) generally have a positive impact on developing countries’ terms of trade except in the case of South Asia? After arguing that such a negative relationship is generally...

Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super cycles during 1865–2010 ranging between 30 and 40years with amplitudes 20–40% higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in...

An empirical stylized fact is that primary exporters' terms of trade worsen when the dollar appreciates and improve when the dollar depreciates. In our theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that an appreciation of the dollar will worsen a primary exporter's terms of trade, the smaller the United...

The five major agricultural producing provinces are compared in terms of farm labour and management incomes, return on investment to farm capital, total farm family income, and farm family net worth. In each province, comparisons are made with non-farm incomes, investment returns and net worth...

The low level of primary commodity prices since 1985 is examined in the context of the behavior of those prices relative to prices of manufactured goods since 1854. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in relative commodity prices is sustained, but the recent decline is shown to...

Recientemente, las alteraciones de las condiciones climáticas, cada vez con mayor frecuencia e intensidad, vienen afectando la producción de alimentos en Colombia y en el resto del mundo, provocando por consiguiente una creciente volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos, la cual se suma al...

A new mathematical model of extreme values probability mixture is proposed in the paper. Effective computational algorithms for modeling probability mixture and value at risk (VaR) capital estimation are developed and rigorously proved. Comparative analysis of VaR-estimation with threshold and...

The work, based on a mathematical model, shows that investment of the additional income into production under reasonable state control, accompanied by moderate inflationary pressure on the consumer market, effects optimal economic growth. The inflationary pressure can to a considerable extent be...