Showing 1 - 10 of 24,465
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy by … using contemporaneous Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology. Our findings indicate that inflation leads to … inflation uncertainty, and dealing with the information content of this relationship, the conditional variance of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559027
In the following study the relation between the public debt and the inflation will be analysed. The transmission from … the public debt to the inflation through the money supply and long term interest rate will be shown. Based on these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010970520
A representation for I(2) processes is derived which allows for trend-stationary components and restricts the deterministic part of the process to be at most linear. A two-step statistical analysis of the model is derived. The joint test of I(1) and I(2) cointegrating ranks is shown to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005749577
This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of Vector Threshold Regression models and that of Vector Smooth Transition Regression models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886057
This study adopts the long-run structural VAR approach to analyse the determinants of inflation in the Euro Area … economy over the period 1985:1- 2003:2. Theoretical relationships link inflation to markup and output gap, respectively. The … short-run dynamic properties of inflation are investigated using a structural VECM. Inflation is explained by a mixture of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405084
The aim of this paper is to construct a quarterly inflation model for Croatia. In order to model inflation dynamics se … economic theories of inflation, which are also consistent with the properties of the data. A two step procedure is followed. In … the first step, the long-run sectoral analysis of inflation sources is conducted, yielding long-run determinants of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005747919
Central Banks have gained much credibility in controlling one important macroeconomic variable: inflation. This paper … tries to examine the relation between inflation and other economic variables in Croatia by searching for the best …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260090
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457