The link between ex post discrete shocks and private investment have never been formally tested in a panel data context, while the evidence of a link between ex ante commodity price uncertainty and investment is weak. This paper constructs measures of discrete shocks and uncertainty using a new...

Commodity export price uncertainty is typically measured as the standard deviation of the terms of trade, but this approach encounters at least three objections. First, terms of trade indices are unsuitable as proxies for commodity price movements per se. Secondly, the shortness of terms of...

Uncertainty about commodity export prices is important to developing countries -- both governments and producers -- that export primary commodities. Commodity export price uncertainty is typically measured as the standard deviation in the terms of trade. There are three problems with this...

The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both...

Analysis of the relationship between aid and growth by Burnside and Dollar found that the better a country's policies, the more effective aid is in raising growth in that country. But this result has been criticized for being sensitive to choice of sample and for neglecting shocks. The authors...

Analysis of the relationship between aid and growth by Burnside and Dollar found that the better a country's policies, the more effective aid is in raising growth in that country. But this result has been criticized for being sensitive to choice of sample and for neglecting shocks. The authors...

The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both...

Uncertainty about commodity export prices is important to developing countries -- both governments and producers -- that export primary commodities. Commodity export price uncertainty is typically measured as the standard deviation in the terms of trade. There are three problems with this...

Information technology, like the telephone, influences market access; this paper answers the question about a reverse effect, does market access affect information technology, in particular its adoption?  Using the introduction of the telephone in Bavaria, I demonstrate with a rank, order and...