Online appendix to Barcelona GSE Working Paper No. 684

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregres- sive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state...

The frequentist and the Bayesian approach to the estimation of autoregressions are often contrasted. Under standard assumptions, when the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimate is close to 1, a frequentist adjusts it upwards to counter the small sample bias, while a Bayesian who uses a at prior...

In this paper we contribute to the literature on the identification of macroeconomic shocks by proposing a Bayesian SVAR with timevarying volatility of innovations that depend on a hidden Markov process, referred to as an MS-SVAR. With sufficient statistical information in the data, the distinct...

This paper examines the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period of single monetary policy using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) techniques. The contributions of the paper are fourfold. First, a novel dataset consisting of 120 disaggregated macroeconomic...

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

In this article, we propose the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Normal innovations. We sample the parameters joint posterior distribution using the approach suggested by Nakatsuma (1998). As a first step, we fit the model to foreign exchange...

We estimate a medium scale DSGE model for the Euro Area to gain intuition on the importance of Limited Asset Market Participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that LAMP is sizeable (39% of households over the 1993-2012 sample) and important to understand EMU business cycle, especially, in the...

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...