Using Monte Carlo methods, we compare the ability of the Kalman-filter, the Kalman-smoother and the flexible least squares (FLS) to uncover the parameters of an autoregression. We find that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator performs much better that the time-varying coefficient methods...

This paper estimates Phillips curve relationships for the data of four Central European countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using a sample period from the mid-1990s till 2012. For the estimation Gordon’s triangle model is used with the Kalman filter, where the...

On the basis of a disaggregated data set, we study inflation persistence in Hungary by focusing on regional cross-sectional variation. To this end, we use regional inflation series constructed from individual store-level price quotes. The price observations were collected for the CPI database at...

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation...

This article studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for 12 central European countries in comparison with the United States and the euro area. We find that inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks,...

We use data on exchange rates and consumer price indices and the weighting matrix derived by Bayoumi, Lee and Jaewoo (2006) to calculate consumer price index-based REER. The main novelties of our database are that (1) it includes data for 178 countries –many more than in any other publicly...

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in...

Standard simple-sum monetary aggregates, like M3, sum up monetary assets that are imperfect substitutes and provide different transaction and investment services. Divisia monetary aggregates, originated from Barnett (1980), are derived from economic aggregation and index number theory and aim to...

1) Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro...

Highlights 1) Irrespective of the euro crisis, a European banking union makes sense, including for non-euro area countries, because of the extent of European Union financial integration. The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is the first element of the banking union. 2) From the point of view...