Ludvigson, Sydney; Lettau, Martin - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1999
This paper studies the role of detrended wealth in predicting stock returns. We call a transitory movement in wealth … data, we find that these trend deviations in wealth are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns … forecasting variables. ; Why should wealth, detrended in this way, forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal …