In this paper we give explicit expressions for the forecasts of levels of a vector time series when such forecasts are generated from (possibly cointegrated) vector autoregressions for the corresponding log-transformed time series. We also show that simply taking exponentials of forecasts for...

In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean...

In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across...

Each year the Dutch magazine Elsevier publishes the results of surveys amongst students concerning the perceived quality of academic studies. Unfortunately, the original survey data are not publicly available. We therefore repeat the survey for economics students in Maastricht and Rotterdam, as...

We conjecture that individual purchases of counterfeit products could be motivated by income and prices, but that another driver is cultural norms. To put the latter conjecture to an empirical test we make use of the unique situation of Surinamese people who live in Suriname and in the...

This paper describes the components of the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy. This measure concerns quarterly and annual growth of Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The key component of our real-time forecasting model for Dutch quarterly GDP is weekly staffing...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....

This paper presents the results of a survey held amongst all editorial board members of six journals. These journals in part focus on the development of models and methods for forecasting. The key question was whether one believes that the forecasting discipline has made progress in the last...

Seasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...