This article uses a game-theoretic framework to evaluate the decision of the Nixon Administration to place United States forces on a world-wide alert to deter Soviet intervention in the October 1973 war in the Middle East. It finds that the alert decision can be justified and explained if the...

A multi-stage escalation model is developed in which each stage is taken as a psychologically distinct and empirically feasible mode of conflict available to two states in a hostile, deterrent relationship. Each stage is defined by a generic, extensive-form game of mutual deterrence in which the...

This report uses a generic two-stage escalation model to ask whether and when limited conflicts can occur. There are two players in the model: Challenger and Defender. Challenger can either initiate a conflict or not. If Challenger initiates, Defender can concede, respond-in-kind, or escalate....

A generic asymmetric two-stage escalation model of incomplete information is used to examine strategic relationships in which one player adopts a defense posture akin to the “Massive Retaliation†policy of the Eisenhower administration that relies only on the threat of escalation to...

The theoretical literature of interstate conflict is dominated by two conceptual models, classical deterrence theory and the spiral model. The fundamental tenet of classical deterrence theory is that credible and capable threats can prevent the initiation, and contain the escalation, of...

This essay constructs a theoretically rigorous explanation of the 1914 European war that involved Austria—Hungary, Germany, Russia, and France. It also serves to confirm Trachtenberg's contention that `one does not have to take a particularly dark view of German intentions' to explain the...