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Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119472
The 2008-09 global economic crises have shown that no country is immune to external challenges. When policy controls are missing or not used efficiently, crises can reverse progress even in advanced economies. This unexpected outcome has increased concerns about the ability of governments in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010829327
The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074698
Using data on 53 countries, this paper studies the unemployment effects of the far-reaching banking liberalization that … liberalization substantially decreased unemployment, particularly among young people. The lowering of barriers to the entry of … strongest effects. There is some, albeit weak, evidence that the cutback in interest rate controls has decreased unemployment as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010943001
This paper introduces endogenous credit constraints in a search model of unemployment. These constraints generate …. Unemployed workers are hard to find jobs generating high and persistent unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540432
We focus on four previous systemic financial crises that the United States has experienced since 1870. These include the crisis of 1873 (called the Great Depression until the 1930s), the 1893 crisis, the panic of 1907, and the Great Depression. Given that all of the earlier crises predate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110861
estimated using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector indicators. The essay finds that traditional variables (eg unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692076
probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126411
This paper investigates whether emerging market countries can implement monetary policies to cope with financial crises as advanced countries did during the recent global crisis—injecting significant amounts of money into the financial system without facing major short-run adverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011056988
We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011210755