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Predictive Power of Information Market Prices
PUTINTSEVA, Maria
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550278
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RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST
Blackwell, Calvin - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 1, pp. 12-25
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798250
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PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY: THE IMPACT OF SIZE, INCENTIVES, CONTEXT AND INTERPRETATION
McHugh, Patrick; Jackson, Aaron - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 6 (2012) 2, pp. 22-46
Enterprises desiring to utilize prediction markets for decision support must consider numerous design factors for their market deployments. Through logistic regression analyses of more than 350 real and play-money prediction markets, this paper evaluates several design issues in order to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798259
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Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets
Spears, Brian; LaComb, Christina; Interrante, John; … - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 3 (2009) 1, pp. 17-39
We present the outcome of an idea market run for one of GE Energy's sub-businesses in July and August of 2006. GE Energy used this market to elicit and rank-order technology and product ideas from across the sub-business. In this experiment, we examine the behavior of traders that have submitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005256302
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Demand forecasting within Montenegrin tourism using Box-Jenkins Methodology for seasonal ARIMA Models
Bigović, Miloš - In: Tourism and Hospitality Management 18 (2012) 1, pp. 1-18
show excellent forecasting performances of specified models. According to forecasting output, Montenegro can expect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095163
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“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”
Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada (IREA), … - 2015
This study attempts to improve the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand by using the existing common trends in …. While most tourism forecasting research focuses on univariate methods, we compare the performance of three different … international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain). We find that the MIMO approach does not outperform the forecasting accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123668
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“Effects of removing the trend and the seasonal component on the forecasting performance of artificial neural network techniques”
Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada (IREA), … - 2015
This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the performance of forecasting based on neural network … demand to Catalonia (Spain) and compare the forecasting accuracy of four processing methods for the input vector of the … networks: levels, growth rates, seasonally adjusted levels and seasonally adjusted growth rates. When comparing the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011124425
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“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”
Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona - 2015
This study attempts to improve the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand by using the existing common trends in …. While most tourism forecasting research focuses on univariate methods, we compare the performance of three different … international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain). We find that the MIMO approach does not outperform the forecasting accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011194343
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“Effects of removing the trend and the seasonal component on the forecasting performance of artificial neural network techniques”
Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona - 2015
This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the performance of forecasting based on neural network … demand to Catalonia (Spain) and compare the forecasting accuracy of four processing methods for the input vector of the … networks: levels, growth rates, seasonally adjusted levels and seasonally adjusted growth rates. When comparing the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011194344
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Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models
Claveria, Oscar; Torra, Salvador - In: Economic Modelling 36 (2014) C, pp. 220-228
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816