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Predictive Power of Information Market Prices
PUTINTSEVA, Maria
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550278
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RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST
Blackwell, Calvin - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 1, pp. 12-25
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798250
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Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets
Spears, Brian; LaComb, Christina; Interrante, John; … - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 3 (2009) 1, pp. 17-39
We present the outcome of an idea market run for one of GE Energy's sub-businesses in July and August of 2006. GE Energy used this market to elicit and rank-order technology and product ideas from across the sub-business. In this experiment, we examine the behavior of traders that have submitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005256302
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PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY: THE IMPACT OF SIZE, INCENTIVES, CONTEXT AND INTERPRETATION
McHugh, Patrick; Jackson, Aaron - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 6 (2012) 2, pp. 22-46
Enterprises desiring to utilize prediction markets for decision support must consider numerous design factors for their market deployments. Through logistic regression analyses of more than 350 real and play-money prediction markets, this paper evaluates several design issues in order to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798259
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FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEMAND: THE EVIDENCE OF MACEDONIA
Petrevska, Biljana - In: UTMS Journal of Economics 3 (2012) 1, pp. 45-55
The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010991585
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WANNA BET THERE WILL BE WAR? A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION MARKETS DURING THE LIBYA CONFLICT 2011
Woerle, Sebastian Matthias - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 7 (2013) 3, pp. 1-28
This paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850154
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A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS
Ray, Russ - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 4 (2010) 3, pp. 85-93
This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850160
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Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples
Fuleky, Peter; Bonham, Carl - University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization … - 2010
We analyze the forecasting performance of small mixed frequency factor models when the observed variables share … transfer of information among indicators. We find that allowing for common trends improves forecasting performance over a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933367
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Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends
Fuleky, Peter; Fuleky, Carl - University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization … - 2013
We analyze the forecasting performance of small mixed frequency factor models when the observed variables share … transfer of information among indicators. We find that allowing for common trends improves forecasting performance over a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933377
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Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models
Claveria, Oscar; Torra, Salvador - In: Economic Modelling 36 (2014) C, pp. 220-228
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816