We propose a sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of the debt dilution problem in accounting for overborrowing and sovereign default risk. We find that debt dilution accounts for 12% of the mean debt level and almost 100% of the sovereign default risk in the...

We show that some recent sovereign debt restructurings were characterized by (i) the absence of missed debt payments prior to the restructurings, (ii) reductions in the government’s debt burden, and (iii) increases in the market value of debt claims for holders of the restructured debt. Since...

Episodes of sovereign default feature three key empirical regularities in connection with the banking systems of the countries where they occur: (i) sovereign defaults and banking crises tend to happen together, (ii) commercial banks have substantial holdings of government debt, and (iii)...

This paper extends the baseline framework used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default by assuming that the government can borrow using long-duration bonds. This contrasts with previous studies, which assume the government can borrow using bonds that mature after one quarter. We show...

We incorporate house price risk and mortgages into a standard incomplete market (SIM) model. We calibrate the model to match U.S. data, and we show that the model also accounts for non-targeted features of the data such as the distribution of down payments, the life-cycle prole of homeownership,...

We find the optimal target values for fiscal rules and measure their aggregate effects using a model of sovereign default. We calibrate the model to an economy that pays a significant sovereign default premium when the government is not constrained by fiscal rules. For different levels of the...

Foreign investment is typically considered an important source of growth for developing countries. This article describes the legal protection granted to foreign investors and its enforcement mechanisms. Governments have signed international investment agreements intended to protect foreign...

Whether governments should issue GDP-indexed sovereign debt continues to be the subject of policy debates. This article contributes to this debate by studying the effects of issuing GDP-indexed sovereign debt contracts using the equilibrium default model studied by Aguiar and Gopinath (2006) and...

In this article, we study the interplay between political factors and default decisions. First, we survey two branches of theoretical studies. One shows that governments may be willing to repay their debt because it is in the best interest of local agents with political power. The other one...