[TR] Bu calismanin amaci onumuzdeki yillarda Turkiye’nin nufus yapisinda gerceklesmesi beklenen degisimin hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini hangi yonde ve ne kadar etkileyecegini incelemektir. Ayrica, toplam nufus icerisinde universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin ve isgucune katilim...

This paper analyzes the effects of removing the unfunded social security in an economy where entrepreneurs play a critical role in replicating the dispersion of wealth observed in the U.S. data. The quantitative findings reveal that the wealth Gini falls from 0 : 804 to 0 : 521 indicating a more...

[TR] Turkiye’de ihracat dinamiklerini aciklamak için yapilan calismalarda, genelde dis talep gostergesi olarak, OECD ve AB ulkeleri gibi genel tanimli ulke gruplarina iliskin makroekonomik buyuklukler kullanilmaktadir. Ancak tanim geregi bu gostergeler, ulkelerin ihracat icindeki paylarini ve...

The aim of this paper is to examine and quantify the impact of demographic change on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. Moreover, the effects of the increase in the share of people with college degree or more in adult population and the rise in...

This paper aims to predict the relative direction of the growth rate of Turkish real gross domestic product (GDP) by using the purchasing managers` index (PMI) data and to quantify the predictive performances of three alternative models: naïve, constant and variable models. Naïve model employs...

[EN] In this note, departing from the observation of systematic price hikes in certain products due to a shift in consumption behavior during Ramadan, we investigate the effects of such changes on food inflation. Empirical findings suggest that Ramadan effect is most significant in red and white...

Recently, Central Bank of Turkey designed new policy instruments in order to reduce the adverse impact of volatile capital flows on macroeconomic and financial stability. This note is aims to introduce one of the new instruments: “Reserve Option Mechanism” (ROM). We describe the transmission...

[TR] Bu not, kredi dinamikleri ile ekonomik buyume arasindaki konjonkturel iliskinin anlasilmasina katkida bulunmak amaciyla, “kredi ivmesi” kavramini tanitarak Turkiye icin hesaplamaktadir. Ozellikle (2011- 2012 yillari gibi) kredilerin artis hizinda onemli degisimler yasanan donemleri...

[TR] Diger ekonomik degiskenlerle cok guclu bir etkilesim icinde bulunan konut fiyatlari takip edilmesi gereken onemli ekonomik degiskenlerden birisidir. Konutun teminat olarak kullanilabilmesi, konut kredilerinin kredi piyasasinda onemli bir paya sahip olmasi, konut kredisi uzerine finansal...

[TR] Bu calismada son donemde artan altin ihracatinin dis ticaret rakamlari ve endeksleri, cari islemler dengesi ve buyume uzerine etkileri incelenmistir. Bunun yaninda, gerek net doviz pozisyonunun hesaplanmasi gerekse onumuzdeki donemde altin ihracatinin surdurulebilirliginin bir gostergesi...