Both credit default swap (CDS) and options markets often experience abnormal swings prior to the announcement of negative credit news. With the exclusion of negative earnings announcements, we find that options prices reveal information about such forthcoming adverse events at least as early as...

Credit default swap and equity options markets often experience abnormal swings prior to the announcement of negative credit news. Option prices reveal information about such forthcoming adverse events at least as early as credit spreads, except for negative earnings announcements. Prior to...

We study the role of mortgage brokers in the subprime crisis using a detailed sample of loans originated by, formerly, one of the largest subprime loan originators, New Century Financial Corporation. Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokerage firms originated about 65% of all subprime...

Over the last two decades, bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model where banks can originate loans, earn their fee, and then sell them off to investors who desire such exposures. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold...

This paper employs non-parametric specification tests developed in Hong and Li (2005) to evaluate several one-factor reduced-form credit risk models for actual default intensities. Using estimates for actual default probabilities provided by Moody’s KMV from 1994 to 2005 for 106 U.S. firms in...

We develop a method for measuring the amount of insurance the portfolio of government liabilities provides against scal shocks, and apply it to postwar US data. We dene scal shocks as surprises in defense spending. Our results indicate that the US federal government is partially hedged against...

This paper estimates the price for restructuring risk in the U.S. corporate bond market during 1999-2005. Comparing quotes from default swap (CDS) contracts with a restructuring event and without, we find that the average premium for restructuring risk represents 6% to 8% of the swap rate...

Nearly half of the variation in European CDS returns is captured by a novel factor that mimics economic catastrophe risk. During the financial crisis of 2007--8, this factor became more important relative to other sources of risk, leading to a shift in the correlation structure of CDS returns....

We establish Markovian models in the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) paradigm that permit an exponential affine representation of riskless and risky bond prices while offering significant flexibility in the choice of volatility structures. Estimating models in our family is typically no more...

We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...