Credit default swap and equity options markets often experience abnormal swings prior to the announcement of negative credit news. Option prices reveal information about such forthcoming adverse events at least as early as credit spreads, except for negative earnings announcements. Prior to...

Both credit default swap (CDS) and options markets often experience abnormal swings prior to the announcement of negative credit news. With the exclusion of negative earnings announcements, we find that options prices reveal information about such forthcoming adverse events at least as early as...

We study the role of mortgage brokers in the subprime crisis using a detailed sample of loans originated by, formerly, one of the largest subprime loan originators, New Century Financial Corporation. Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokerage firms originated about 65% of all subprime...

Over the last two decades, bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model where banks can originate loans, earn their fee, and then sell them off to investors who desire such exposures. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold...

This paper employs non-parametric specification tests developed in Hong and Li (2005) to evaluate several one-factor reduced-form credit risk models for actual default intensities. Using estimates for actual default probabilities provided by Moody’s KMV from 1994 to 2005 for 106 U.S. firms in...

We develop a method for measuring the amount of insurance the portfolio of government liabilities provides against scal shocks, and apply it to postwar US data. We dene scal shocks as surprises in defense spending. Our results indicate that the US federal government is partially hedged against...

This paper estimates the price for restructuring risk in the U.S. corporate bond market during 1999-2005. Comparing quotes from default swap (CDS) contracts with a restructuring event and without, we find that the average premium for restructuring risk represents 6% to 8% of the swap rate...

We identify a common default risk premia (DRP) factor in the risk-adjusted excess returns on pure default-contingent claims. Asset pricing tests using almost 50 corporate bond portfolios sorted on rating, maturity or industry suggest that the DRP factor is priced in the corporate bond market....

Common variation in the prices of defaultable securities may not always be associated with a rational response to an increase in the relative importance of a macroeconomic risk factor. Building on Campbell's ICAPM framework, we show that risk premia of assets with nonlognormal return...

Bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold in the secondary market underperform their peers by about 9% per year (risk-adjusted) over the three-year period following the initial sale...