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tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945075
World power and gas markets have a natural relationship with global tradable carbon permits markets, including the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the latter officially launched in January 2005. Electric utilities operate their power plants based in part on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162982
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010580995
This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in forecasting Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008593003
frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole … density, whereas the Bayesian approach exhibits significantly better left-tail forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256766
Tutorial on valuation of mortgage backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations, including: - Structure of the mortgage market - Prepayment modeling - OAS analysis - Interest rate modeling - Numerical methods - Parallelization
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012731224
This paper presents a new approach to the modeling of the conditional correlation matrix in the multivariate GARCH framework which consists in breaking it into the product of a sequence of matrices with desirable characteristics. This feature will allow for a multi step estimation procedure,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012746510
Valuation of mortgage backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) is the big science of the financial world. There are many moving parts, each one drawing on expertise in a different field. Prepayment modeling draws on statistical modeling of economic behavior. Data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012746682
This study presents a first comparative analysis of Lasso-type (Lasso, adaptive Lasso, elastic net) and heuristic subset selection methods. Although the Lasso has shown success in many situations, it has some limitations. In particular, inconsistent results are obtained for pairwise highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010907957
In this paper we ‘update’ the option implied probability of default (option iPoD) approach recently suggested in the literature. First, a numerically more stable objective function for the estimation of the risk neutral density is derived whose integrals can be solved analytically. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010696236