Showing 1 - 10 of 2,712
This paper analyzes the term structure of interest rates in an exchangeonly Lucas (1978) economy where consumers learn about a stochastic growth rate through observations of the endowment process and an external public signal. We show that there is a premium for noisy external public information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162957
expectations, have incomplete information about the working of the economy and form expectations through an adaptive learning … expectations and of learning. The main findings are the followings: (i) under learning, price dynamics in 2015-16 is on average 0 … repeated deflationary shocks; (ii) the learning process implies a (data-driven) de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011103306
An analytical study of the evolution of the distribution of firm size in an industry is presented. A drift-diffusion model is proposed to express the time-evolution of density of firm size within the industry. The model blends the conventional, more or less static, determinants with the kinds of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622535
This paper analyzes the expected life-time utility and the hedging demands in a Lucas (1978) economy, in which the dividend drift term is unknown and mean-reverting. An expression for the individual investor’s expected life-time utility in equilibrium is derived, and his hedging demand is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005645232
becomes a more accurate signal of their ability. Elections reduce the learning effect, and the reduction in this effect may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792465
Many attempts to increase civic competence are based on premises about communication and belief change that are directly contradicted by important insights from microeconomic theory and social psychology. At least two economic literatures are relevant to my effort to improve matters. One is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125964
This paper analyzes the expected life-time utility and the hedging demands in an exchange only, representative agent general equilibrium under incomplete information. We derive an expression for the investor’s expected life-time utility, and analyze his hedging demands for intertemporal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222538
show that the success in learning the opponent’s type depends on the characteristics of the true game. The learning success … equilibrium and we observe no correlation between equilibrium play and learning about the game. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005184880
We show in a theoretical model that the expected excess return on any asset depends on its covariance not only with the market portfolio, but also with changes in the representative agent’s estimate. In the empirical specification, this ”estimation factor” is based on realized growth in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190581
uncertainty and to smooth consumption across time : it also enables learning information. Conversely, defaulting now becomes … strategic : certain players may manipulate prices so as to provoke a default in order to prevent their opponents from learning …. We focus on learning equilibria, at the end of which no player has incorrect beliefs — not because those players with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010585896