In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX...

The importance of credit access to improve economic opportunities in developing markets is well established in the literature. However, there exists a strong need to mitigate adverse selection problems in microlending. A risk scoring model that more accurately predicts the likelihood of...

Bayesian networks are graphical models that represent the joint distribution of a set of variables using directed acyclic graphs. The graph can be manually built by domain experts according to their knowledge. However, when the dependence structure is unknown (or partially known) the network has...

We study both empirically and theoretically the consequences of introducing a conditional cash transfer scheme for the distribution of program impacts. Intuitively, if the conditioned-on good is normal, then better-offhouseholds tend to receive a larger positive impact. I formalize this insight...

Este trabajo estudia el crecimiento de la productividad de la industria de alimentacion y badidas en el periodo 1993-2007 a partir de los datos agregados de la Encuesta Industrial de Empresas. A partir de ratios de productividad parcial de trabajo y de aproximaciones de la productividad total de...

Este trabajo estudia el crecimiento de la productividad de la industria de alimentacion y bebidas en el periodo 1993-2007 a partir de los datos agregados de la Encuesta Industrial de Empresas. A partir de ratios de productividad parcial del trabajo y de aproximaciones de la productividad total...

In mathematical finance diffusion models are widely used and a variety of different parametric models for the drift and diffusion coefficient coexist in the literature. Since derivative prices depend on the particular parametric model of the diffusion coefficient function of the underlying, a...

This paper proposes empirical likelihood based inference methods for causal effects identified from regression discontinuity designs. We consider both the sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs and treat the regression functions as nonparametric. The proposed inference procedures do...

This paper asks whether comprehensive, non-interest government size has an inverted Ushaped effect on private economic output in Canada and whether its current size is too large relative to the estimated tipping point. Using data from 1929 through 2011 and controlling for both correlations...