Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

In this article, we evaluate alternative optimization frameworks for constructing portfolios of hedge funds. We compare the standard mean–variance optimization model with models based on CVaR, CDaR and Omega, for both conservative and aggressive hedge fund investment strategies. In order to...

Aim of our paper is to analyze the enhancement of portfolio management by using more sophisticated assumptions about distributions and dependencies of stock returns. We assume a skewed t-distribution of the returns according to Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) and a dependency structure following a...

Consider an agent who holds a stock, but is allowed to buy and hold some quantity of at-the-money put options on the stock. Such an agent must decide the optimal use of financial derivatives under trade restrictions. This paper uses simulation to compare the optimal quantity when the agent...

Model builders face ambiguity about the true data generating process. Consequently, they need to deal with ambiguity attitudes (inside uncertainty) and ambiguous financial reality (outside uncertainty) when developing and estimating financial models. We introduce a novel approach for...

Credit risk assessment requires both probability of default and correlation to be estimated. However, such estimation is subject to uncertainty. In order to assess the uncertainty affecting the simultaneous estimation of both parameters, the discussion in literature focuses on the use of...

We consider consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency at any order of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets. We propose and justify approaches based on simulation and the block bootstrap to achieve valid inference in a time series...