This article shows that the first autocorrelation of basketball shot results is a highly biased and inconsistent estimator of the first autocorrelation of the <italic>ex ante</italic> probabilities with which the shots are made. Shot result autocorrelation is close to zero even when shot probability...

The authors analyze the effects of psychological pressure on performance using National Basketball Association (NBA) free throw data from the 2002-2003 through 2009-2010 seasons. The authors find evidence that players choke under pressure— they shoot on average 5-10 percentage points worse...