Can economists forecast the direction of economic growth? Casual observation indicates that individual economists make poor predictions of economic growth and that their forecasts are highly correlated. This paper examines the loss of information resulting from correlation and develops a method...

This companion paper to Chatelain and Ralf (2012), “Spurious regressions with near-multicollinearity” put their results into the contexts of the history of statistics, of the current publication bias in applied sciences and of the substantive versus statistical significance debate. This...

The average of periodic growth rates is a downwardly biased estimator of the rate of growth of a country. The higher the variance of the periodical growth rates, the higher the downward bias. The longer the business cycle, the higher the downward bias. In this short paper, we demonstrate these...

This paper considers the implications of the conceptual difference between the rental price of capital, embedded in the neoclassical cost identity (output equals the cost of labour plus the cost of capital), and used in growth accounting studies; and the profit rate, which can be derived from...

La controversia del capital ha sido uno de los debates más intensos en teoría económica. Cuando Joan Robinson preguntó ¿en qué unidades se mide el capital? el análisis de la teoría de la producción se vio afectado por las inconsistencias que surgen al utilizar bienes de capital...

This paper describes the history of the national accounts starting from the incidental estimates by Petty, King and Davenant in the seventeenth century. The period 1930-1950 was a revolution in terms of the roles and uses of the national accounts, e.g. the discovery of input-output analysis,...

We conduct a comprehensive study of macroeconomic modeling methods, new theories of economic growth and the impact of technology and institutions on economic growth, in order to formulate the basic characteristics that are critical for efficient technological and institutional effects modeling....