The current crisis has proven the importance of the national banking system. Sovereign funds will play an important role in reinforcing the position of several emerging countries and markets in the world. The great amount of financing needed in order to fix the problems and the gaps brought by...

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work. We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups...

Previous assessments of forecasting performance of exchange rate models have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by...

We propose a specification of the euro/dollar real exchange rate based on the productivity differential, the governments spending differential and the real interest rate differential. This model suitably describes the euro/dollar path over the last two decades and presents satisfactory...

Developing markets like China, Pakistan and India are becoming extremely important for investments. Therefore, this article attempts to determine if the exchange rates for these countries can be forecasted successfully using existing exchange rate models. This is done by analysing the in sample...

We re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and a composite specification. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications - purchasing power parity...

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...