This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We estimate a latent variable VAR to examine how macroeconomic and policy shocks affect the condition of the stock market. Further, we examine the...

We first document a large secular shift in the estimated response of the entire term structure of interest rates to inflation and output in the United States. The shift occurred in the early 1980s. We then derive an equation that links these responses to the coefficients of the central bank's...

In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...

This paper assesses the contribution of monetary policy to bond returns volatility, assuming that the monetary authority controls the short-term nominal interest rate. We model exogenously the joint process for the aggregate endowment and the nominal interest rate, and we determine endogenously...

The bond yield dynamics implied by a welfare-maximizing monetary policy and its credibility are explored in general equilibrium. Credibility is captured by a regime change from discretion to commitment. The policy determines the optimal output and inflation responses to a source of inflation...

The paper studies the parity conditions between assets denominated in different currencies, traded in a wellintegrated segment of the international capital market, and derives the consequences for the exchange rate expectations. The main objective is to assess the uncovered asset return parity...

Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye’de hangi piyasa aracinin para politikasi kararlarina iliskin beklentileri daha iyi yansittigi sorusuna yanit aramaktir. Bu amacla, cesitli piyasa araclari ve yontemler kullanilarak para politikasi faizi beklentileri hesaplanmis ve degiskenlerin para politikasi...

Should central banks react to stock market prices? This problem has become fashionable again after the bubble of the 1990s and the following recession: if the Fed had reacted earlier to con tain the sharp growth in stock prices, might macroeconomic stabilization have been achieved? We present a...

The paper deals with the transmission of monetary policy inside the fmancial sector. The objective is to link an optimizing stochastic model of portfolio decisions by a representative financial institution with a number of features that this optimizing behavior implies for the monetary...

This article rejects the linkages in proposals that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) target equity prices. The real federal funds rate (RFF) and stock prices (SP) are uncorrelated; causality tests show a positive effect of SP on RFF and a negative effect of SP on RFF. These results occur as part of...