This paper estimates the joint dynamics of consumption growth and the long end of the real yield curve using an arbitrage-free term structure model with flexible specifications of market prices of risk. The model allows us to extract from prices of long-lived real bonds a small but persistent...

A negative real interest rate has guaranteed macroeconomic equilibrium during every emergency in the United States since the early 19th century, except the Great Depression in the 1930s when deflation interfered with the interest rate mechanism. During the Great Depression, the interest rate...

The confidence that financial markets are able to discipline the debt behaviour of governments is not very high. Therefore, the Stability and Growth Pact has been implemented as an institutional constraint to substitute for the market mechanism. With the weakening of the Pact, market discipline...

The implementation of monetary policy through financial markets is widely believed to be an important factor affecting the return on financial assets, particularly the return on short-term government debt. This paper assesses the effects of shocks to monetary policy on Treasury bill returns by...

We use no arbitrage models with macro variables to study the interaction between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. This interaction is a key element for monetary policy and for forecasting. The model was used to analyze the Brazilian domestic financial market using a daily dataset and two...

We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

U.S. Treasury securities fill several crucial roles in financial markets: they are a risk-free benchmark, a reference and hedging benchmark, and a reserve asset to the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. Many of the features that make the Treasury market an attractive benchmark and...

Expected exchange rate changes are determined by interest rate differentials across countries and risk premia, while unexpected changes are driven by innovations to macroeconomic variables, which are amplified by time-varying market prices of risk. In a model where short rates respond to the...

Are securities markets more liquid when the economy is more liquid? If so, why? One possibility is that market depth depends on credit constrained intermediaries. This paper offers another explanation, which does not involve frictions or market segmentation. Measuring market illiquidity by the...