I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …

A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique … simple adaptive expectations.We show that for a range of processes, monetary policy remains subject to the Lucas critique …

reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the …

rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and it allows for learning instead. Economic … agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. I estimate the model by …

expectations to match the inertia in the data and to improve the fit of estimated New Keynesian Phillips curves. The empirical … results show that when learning replaces the assumption of fully rational expectations, structural sources of persistence in …

The notion of optimized rational behavior in the formation of expectations is used in this note to study the dynamics …

and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence … replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This finding suggests that … persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the …

Previous experimental investigations have shown that expectations are not perfectly rational due to several forms of … bias. Traditional adaptive models, however, in many cases do not perfectly describe the formation of expectations either …. This paper makes two contributions to the experimental literature on the formation of expectations: First, we investigate …