Previous work on the joint effects of vagueness in probabilities and outcomes in decisions about risky prospects has documented the decision-makers’ (DMs) differential sensitivity to these two sources of imprecision. Budescu et al. [6] report two studies in which DMs provided certainty...

This study investigates the influence of past volatility on individual investors' forecasting behavior. We conducted two experiments in which we used real stock prices to construct low and high volatility time series, and asked participants to make both point estimates and interval forecasts of...

This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration so it is difficult to compare directly their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...