Showing 1 - 10 of 5,021
used as an importance density for importance sampling (IS) or as a proposal density for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC …(θ,α|y) of p(θ,α|y) for two stochastic volatility models, two stochastic count models and a stochastic duration model. I … posterior inference, using IS and MCMC. Compared with other simulation smoothing methods, the HESSIAN method is highly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052248
Suppose we wish to carry out likelihood based inference but we solely have an unbiased simulation based estimator of the likelihood. We note that unbiasedness is enough when the estimated likelihood is used inside a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. This result has recently been intro- duced in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005730008
In this paper we extend the parametric, asymmetric, stochastic volatility model (ASV), where returns are correlated … with volatility, by flexibly modeling the bivariate distribution of the return and volatility innovations nonparametrically …. Its novelty is in modeling the joint, conditional, return-volatility, distribution with a infinite mixture of bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010555040
Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731830
Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972192
Publication in the 'Journal of Business & Economic Statistics' forthcoming.<A> We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. We propose a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models via the combination of numerical and...</a>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255569
This paper studies Heath-Jarrow-Morton-type models with regime-switching stochastic volatility. In this setting the … forward rate volatility is allowed to depend on the current forward rate curve as well as on a continuous time Markov chain y … conditions on the volatility guaranteeing the representation of the forward rate process by a finite-dimensional Markovian state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005462502
We introduce a new method for drawing state variables in Gaussian state space models from their conditional distribution given parameters and observations. Unlike standard methods, our method does not involve Kalman filtering. We show that for some important cases, our method is computationally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008617027
We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. By combining existing numerical and Monte Carlo integration methods, we obtain a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models. Our approach is based on the idea that only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008873337
We introduce a new method for drawing state variables in Gaussian state space models from their conditional distribution given parameters and observations. Unlike standard methods, our method does not involve Kalman filtering. We show that for some important cases, our method is computationally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005273208