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We identify inefficiency in the National Football League (NFL) gambling market indicative of sticky preferences by bettors. NFL teams that qualified for the playoffs in the prior season are favoured by too large a margin in the opening week of the following season. Bettors view these teams as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010760632
Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778309
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In this paper we analyze the total line betting market for National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season games for the 2009-2012 seasons. Specifically, we divide seasons by week and analyze points scored, total lines and game statistics such as field goal percentage and turnovers. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798233
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This paper examines the information content in option markets surrounding analyst recommendation changes. The sample includes 6,119 recommendation changes for optionable stocks over the period January 1996 through December 2005. As expected, mean underlying asset returns are positive (negative)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008670965
We study the perceived discrepancy between power conference and mid-major college football teams by examining outcomes of games when these teams face one another. We find that point spreads are set statistically irrationally in games where power conference teams play mid-major teams. We examine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798235
In this paper we test the efficiency of NFL betting markets by examining the ability of NFL point spread and moneyline markets to incorporate information. While bookmakers may properly evaluate available information when setting point spreads and moneylines, we show that the nature of point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798254
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Recent research has hypothesized that a higher concentration of informed traders in a market implies that prices are more efficient. A reasonable next question is whether large price movements in markets with a relatively more informed clientele are more indicative of information realization. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011065963