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Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - Abteilung für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Mannheim - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010833234
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - Abteilung für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Mannheim - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161440
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
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The case for higher frequency inflation expectations
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
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Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets
Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman - Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet - 2007
We analyze a binary prediction market in which traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and private information. Realistically, we assume that traders are allowed to invest a limited amount of money (or have decreasing absolute risk aversion). We show that the rational expectations equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005749998
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An Evolutionary Quantum Game Model of Financial Market Dynamics - Theory and Evidence
Gonçalves, Carlos Pedro dos Santos - 2007
The application of mathematical physics to economics has seen a recent development in the form of quantum game theory …. Quantum game theory has become an important field of research in multidisciplinary applications of mathematical physics to the …' dynamics, from the point of view of evolutionary quantum game theory, proposing a quantum game theoretical model of a financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730224
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Herding and the Information Content of Trades in the Australian Dollar Market
Carpenter, Andrew - 2008
This study shows that the information content of FX transactions depends on the identity of market participants. Using spot FX transactions of a major Australian bank, we find that central banks have the greatest price impact, followed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as hedge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773999
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Savings Selectivity Bias, Subjective Expectations, and Stock Market Participation
Bonaparte, Yosef - 2013
Studies of household stock market participation report low participation rates. The explanations cited are that the fixed costs associated with participation and high risk aversion discourage households from buying stocks. However, the low participation rate findings are unchallenged. We argue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012711752
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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
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Speculation, Bubbles, and Sunspots under Structural Uncertainty
Wihlborg, Clas - Institutet för Näringslivsforskning (IFN) - 1987
No abstract.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010684502