GARCH models have been extensively used in risk modeling under the normal distribution. Although they generate highly significant coefficient estimates, these models are known to have poor forecasting power. It is therefore interesting to develop a different approach of risk modeling to improve...

This paper considers the question of the most appropriate severity distribution estimator for Loss Distribution Analysis (LDA) on operational risk data. We compare the performance of four severity distribution estimators, three well known and one relatively new and assess their suitability for...

We compare the performance of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) models when applied to a high frequency hedge fund index. Our analysis is carried out on the Barclay/Calyon CTA daily index available since early 2000. We use 1-day-ahead VaR forecasts for various thresholds (10%, 5% and 1%) and apply...

In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential features of risk factors describing different asset...

We investigate how buyer-supplier firm-specific relationships affect security prices. We propose a structural model of firm dependence in a vertically connected network of firms based on cash flow transfers between buyers and suppliers. We prove that financial market completeness in a closed...

There are two unique volatility surfaces associated with any arbitrage-free set of standard European option prices, the implied volatility surface and the local volatility surface. Several papers have discussed the stochastic differential equations for implied volatilities that are consistent...

Geometric mean reversion plays a fundamental role in economic dynamic models. While it is known, at least since Merton (1975) [9], that the equilibrium distribution of geometric mean reversion is a Gamma distribution, an explicit expression for the non-equilibrium distribution has not been...

To verify whether an empirical distribution has a specific theoretical distribution, several tests have been used, for example: Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Kuiper. These tests try to analyze if all parts of the empirical distribution has a specific theoretical shape. But, in a Risk Management...

We model the joint risk-neutral distribution of the euro-sterling and the dollar-sterling exchange rates using option-implied marginal distributions that are connected via a copula function that satisfies the triangular no-arbitrage condition. We then derive a univariate distribution for a...

This paper develops both univariate and multivariate distributions based on Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth expansions, attempting to ensure non negativity by exploiting the orthogonal properties of the Hermite polynomials. The article motivates the problems underlying some specifications (in...