Showing 1 - 10 of 4,889
We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083912
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004112147
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004023531
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004681014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004660682
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004584838
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004057719
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004708279
This paper analyses the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries. An analysis … of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse … estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that conflict and terrorism have a significant negative impact on growth through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769118
This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the … world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of … risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242246