This paper presents a multivariate (MV) methodology for obtaining measures of excess demand that can facilitate discussion of monetary policy issues and improve policy decisions. Using data for the Czech Republic, a growing economy undergoing major structural change, it shows how the use of more...

Random copying is a simple model for population dynamics in the absence of selection, and has been applied to both biological and cultural evolution. In this work, we investigate the effect that spatial structure has on the dynamics. We focus in particular on how a measure of the diversity in...

A new resampling procedure, the continuous-path block bootstrap, is proposed in the context of testing for integrated (unit root) time series. The continuous-path block bootstrap (CBB) is a nonparametric procedure that successfully generates unit root integrated pseudo time series retaining the...

Monetary models of exchange rates tend to focus on inflation differentials to explain exchange rate movements. This paper assesses the ability of currency flows to predict exchange rate changes. The focus is on Japan. Currency flows are assumed to depend on the level of the current account and...

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah...

A system with heavy tailed service requirements under heavy load having a single server has an equilibrium waiting time distribution which is approximated by the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This fact is understood by a direct analysis of the weak convergence of a sequence of negative drift...

In financial markets traders often protect their position from a significant decline by using a trailing stop. Assume the trader is long the market (owns the security). A trailing stop is an order to sell the security at the market, if the price of the security drops to the stop price. The stop...

This paper considers a sequence of discrete-time random walk markets with a single risky asset, and gives conditions for the existence of arbitrage opportunities or free lunches with vanishing risk, of the form of waiting to buy and selling the next period, with no shorting, and furthermore for...