This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...

We revisit recent evidence on how monetary policy affects output and prices in the U.S. and in the euro area. The response patterns to a shift in monetary policy are similar in most respects, but differ noticeably as to the composition of output changes. In the euro area investment is the...

This paper analyses the effects of a change in monetary policy on firms' investment in Germany, France, Italy and Spain using a data set which provides aggregated balance sheet and profit and loss account data for 17 different industries and 3 different size classes. The main findings are...

English Abstract: We use a multivariate hazard model to analyse the ratification behaviour of ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects: one at the country level, the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a...

This paper investigates the recent changes in the French wage structure from 1990 to 2008. To do so, we disentangle the impact of changes in employment probability, changes in the levels of education and experience and changes in the price of labor. Unlike other developped countries, we find...

Two surveys on wage-setting practices conducted in 2007 and 2009 suggest that base wages are relatively sticky in France and that, in response to the signifi cant decline in activity, firms have adopted strategies aimed mainly at reducing labour costs and the variable components of compensation.

Les 5 et 6 juillet 2012, la Banque de France a organisé le 18e colloque international sur l’analyse des données de panel, réunissant quelque 180 chercheurs qui ont présenté et discuté des études couvrant un large éventail de recherches théoriques et appliquées. Cette manifestation a...

The acceleration of the firm failure rate in France between 2008 and 2010 was preceded by a surge in the number of firms’ creations in 2003-2004. Therefore, identifying the impact of the 2008 crisis requires to distinguish, among the failures occurring over the period, those resulting from the...

We analyze the dynamics of the bank interest rates on the new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in seven countries of the euro area (France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Our specification is based on a multivariate diffusion model, involving factors...

We analyse the dynamics of the pass-through of banks’ marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We measure banks’ marginal cost by their rate on new deposits, contrary to the...