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for micro simulation such as the choice of estimation criteria, calibration to benchmarks and model validation. Some of …Micro simulation involves modeling the behavior of individuals and other decision units taking into account the effects … entire distribution of target variables. Micro simulation models have thus, for instance, been used to analyze how changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005644564
This paper examines the rise of the VAR (Vector AutoRegressive) approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises from a fusion of the Cowles Commission tradition and time series statistical methods, catalysed by the rational expectations (RE) movement, that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725583
There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by Galton's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012737206
There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771756
In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260122
The reduction theory of David F. Hendry provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the analysis and … sameunderlying probability space of the first reduction - and hence the subsequent reductions - given a commonplace theory of social … Hendry's theory are interpreted as indeterministic worlds made up of historically inherited particulars. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005008632
There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119076
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090668
This paper analyzes alternative approaches to measuring the effects of structural tax changes on government growth. It first reviews traditional time series approaches that attempt to disentangle the causal relationships between taxes and spending. It explains why these methods are incapable of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005758283
theory, as well as social research, are two excellent stages upon which we may search for clues and insights to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258411