We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the <italic>directional accuracy</italic> of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast,...

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...

We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates....

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis,...

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...