This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key...

Public debts have surged in recent years, in advanced economies, to the levels that have not been recorded since the end of the World War II. The average public debt/GDP ratio for all advances economies has surpassed the pre-World War II peaks reached during the World War I and subsequently...

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a renewed increase in government deficits and debts in many EU countries, causing a full-fledged fiscal crisis in Greece and severe fiscal pressures in other euro-area countries. This has prompted a series of proposals for improving the fiscal framework...

The influence of debt on macroeconomic stability and the ability to restart growth has been a constant concern since the Second World War period. In recent decades, public debt has increased considerably in most countries. Upward trend of public debt was accompanied by an increase in public...

This paper applies the probabilistic debt sustainability model developed for the euro area in Cline (2012, 2014) to sovereign debt in the United States and Japan. The results indicate that to avoid further increases in the expected ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual...

The article is aimed at analyzing the consequences of debt crisis in European Union. Special attention is paid to changes in economic policy. In the first para-graph theoretical background of public debt is presented. In the second para-graph the level of public debt in European Union is...

This paper provides an evaluation of the long-term fiscal sustainability of advanced economies, based on current estimates of these economies’ current-policy fiscal trajectories. As will be quite evident, for many countries short-term fiscal measures, such as the debt-GDP ratio and the...

This paper provides an evaluation of the long-term fiscal sustainability of advanced economies, based on current estimates of these economies’ current-policy fiscal trajectories. As will be quite evident, for many countries short-term fiscal measures, such as the debt-GDP ratio and the...