In den USA entsprach die konjunkturelle Verlangsamung im vergangenen Jahr der Strategie des "Soft Landing". Dank des wieder höheren Wachstumstempos in der ersten Jahreshälfte wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) 1996 voraussichtlich um knapp 2,5 % zunehmen. Die für 1997 erwartete Rate...

В данной статье автор раскрывает и анализирует основные понятия и сущность таких терминов, как «риск» и «неопределенность». Рассмотрены дефиниции риска и...

This paper provides the empirical evidence of the effects of public debt on interest rate, output and gross fixed capital formation in India during the period between the fourth quarter of 1998 and fourth quarter of 2012. Using the structural VAR model with variance decompositions and impulse...

This paper investigates the behaviour of stock prices in Italy over the 1963-1995 period. By means of a time-series analysis of both the long- and the short-run properties of stock prices and other macroeconomic variables, we find strong evidence of a long-run equilibrium negative relation...

This paper analyzes the impacts of the United States (US) monetary shocks on East Asian countries using structural vector-autoregression (VAR) model. We find that the impacts of the US monetary shocks on East Asian domestic interest rates and exchange rates contradict conventional wisdom. The...

We consider an economy where the oil price, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to a variety of fundamental shocks. We estimate the effects of different structural shocks using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory using US data for the 1973-2007...

We follow a Beveridge-Nelson like time series decomposition method (into trend, business cycle and irregular components), and examine a stylized model of price inflation determination using the Czech data. We characterize the estimated components of CPI, IPPI and import inflations, together with...

A close examination of the MENA region economies reveals a number of fundamental sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. These include economic factors such as exchange rate instability, large public debt, current account deficits, and escalation of inflation. The political factors such as...

We consider an economy in which the oil costs, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to fundamental domestic and external demand and supply shocks. We estimate the effects of these structural shocks on US monthly data for the 1973.1-2007.12 period using...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of macroeconomic factors on secured and unsecured household loans from UK banks. Design/methodology/approach – The approach uses Vector auto-regression models to test the relationship between macroeconomic factors such as...