We study a simple monetary model in which a central bank faces a boundedly rational private sector and has the goal of stabilizing inflation. The system's dynamics is generated by the interaction of the expectations about inflation of the various agents involved. A modest degree of heterogeneity...

This Paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in the face of aggregate shocks. The payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on their...

This paper studies the formulation of monetary policy in a changing environment when knowledge regarding some aspects of the structure of the economy is imperfect and an adaptive learning technology is available to the policymaker and economic agents. As a benchmark, we develop a simple model of...

The literature on multi-agent models up until recently has been mainly concerned with the price dynamics in a setting where agents are allowed to switch between a finite number of strategies.In reality, however, we would expect a high degree of heterogeneity, such that few belief types will...

Replying to Queen Elizabeth II who in November 2008 asked why so few economists had warned about the emerging financial crisis, a group of eminent economists of the British Academy, claimed that while this failure had many causes, the most important was principally a failure of the collective...

This paper explores the dynamics of the U.S. hog market with three different dynamic models that are distinguished only by their assumptions with regard to market participants' expectations of future prices. The first model assumes that all the producers in the market have rational expectations....

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...