This Paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they believe that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, biased expectations lead to poorer decisions...

People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous...

Conditions of beating the market is always top of the interests of investors throughout the history. In this study we aim to find who beats the market using a special trade and portfolio data from a stock exchange namely Borsa Ýstanbul. To do so, we define the market beating conditions by using...