This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data.We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects...

This paper introduces the framework of rational beliefs of Kurz(1994), which makes the assumptions of heterogeneous beliefs of Harrison and Kreps (1978) and Morris (1996) more plausible. Agents hold diverse beliefs that are quot;rationalquot; in the sense of being compatible with ample observed...

The study was carried out to accomplish three goals : (1) Propose graphical displays of IRT model fit at the item level and suggest fit procedures at the test level that are not impacted by large sample size, (2) examine the impact of IRT model misfit on proficiency classifications, and (3)...

In the past three decades, Chinese electricity industry has experienced a series of regulatory reforms serving different purposes at different stages. In 2002, the former vertically integrated electricity utility - the State Power Corporation (SPC) – was divested and the generation sector was...

Following Jermann and Quadrini (2012), we apply the dynamic stochastic general equilib- rium modeling method (DSGE) to assess whether nancial shocks matter for the Japanese economy. We construct time series of nancial shocks and productivity shocks using Japan's quarterly data since 2001 and...

Jermann and Quadrini (2012) show that compared with productivity shocks, direct shocks to the credit system ("nancial shocks") have contributed to the most frequently observed dynamics of both real and nancial variables in the US within a closed economy framework. We develop a simple two-country...

In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and...