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synchronization (BCS) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business … cycle synchronization. (5) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15 … positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (2) Rising specialization does not decouple business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010868543
Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136463
Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142006
Business cycle synchronization represents a condition for the successful implementation of the common monetary policy … within the Economic and Monetary Union. There is a tight relation between business cycle synchronization and the economic … factors which influence the synchronization of the economic fluctuations of the economies in the Euro area. A second objective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010859869
properly in order to identify the synchronization behavior across countries. Our results suggest that there is a relevant … influence from the US cycle, since it acts as a source of international business cycle synchronization. However, spillovers from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010908215
This paper analyses the comovement of the German and Austrian economies and the transmission of German shocks to Austria. Static and dynamic correlation measures show a strong comovement and a change of the relative position in time of these two economies. The transmission of German shocks to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727746
Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790082
countries’ cycles used as a comparison base, the broad EU15 and the narrow G3. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835532
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the USA, Japan and the Euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005141108
This paper provides an updated picture of the degree of business cycles synchronization in the European Union … cycles and the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the degree of synchronization. The results obtained show that the … highest level of business cycle synchronization with the Euro Area is reached by Finland and France, while Poland is by far …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681052