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) model where the parameters of the correlation dynamics and those of the log-volatility process are driven by two latent … structure. Correlation paths display frequent shifts along the whole sample, both in low and in high volatility phases, pointing …This paper builds on Asai and McAleer (2009) and develops a new multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010662864
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825618
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004021915
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004060988
contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not … require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from … structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232
This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824823
estimation finds these economic indicators to be significant for emerging market countries during the Mexican, Asian, and Russian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769104
, and data from the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises to provide evidence of this discriminating contagion, after … controlling for alternative channels of contagion such as trade spillovers and financial linkages. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599208