In this paper we contribute to the literature on the identification of macroeconomic shocks by proposing a Bayesian SVAR with timevarying volatility of innovations that depend on a hidden Markov process, referred to as an MS-SVAR. With sufficient statistical information in the data, the distinct...

Some groups of countries are connected not only economically, but also social and even demographically. This last fact can be exploited when trying to forecast the death rates of their populations. In this paper we propose a hierarchical specification of the Lee-Carter model and we assume that...