We develop a test for weak instruments in linear instrumental variables regression that is robust to heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and clustering. Our test statistic is a scaled nonrobust first-stage <italic>F</italic> statistic. Instruments are considered weak when the two-stage least squares or the...

I apply the model with unobserved components and stochastic volatility (UC-SV) to forecast the Russian consumer price index. I extend the model which was previously suggested as a model for inflation forecasting in the USA to take into account a possible difference in model parameters and...

We present a signalling theory of quantitative easing in which open market operations that change the duration of outstanding nominal government debt affect the incentives of the central bank in determining the real interest rate. In a time consistent (Markov-perfect) equilibrium of a...

We provide a condition which is both necessary and sufficient for uniform validity of asymptotic approximations using the delta-method, that is for uniform negligibility of the remainder of such approximations. This condition is easily verified and permits to identify settings and parameter...

Following the real option literature, whether or not uncertainty shocks drive business cycles depends on the degree of adjustment frictions. The more plants freeze and remain inactive in response to increased uncertainty, the stronger the adverse effects on the economic activity. Using quarterly...

This paper documents a new set of stylized facts on the joint distribution of labor and capital productivity across plants. We exploit panel data from Germany, Chile, Colombia and Indonesia and show that the basic patterns are similar in all economies. Decomposing factor productivities into high...

Using quarterly worker flow data of U.S. establishments, we find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty reduces hirings and quits, while it raises layoffs. This finding suggests that the real option effect of uncertainty is less important for employment decisions. Hence plants do not freeze...