We construct a multi-agent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in the state of long run expectations (SOLE) or “animal spirits” and their effect on firms’ investment...

We construct a multi-agent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in “animal spirits” or the state of long run expectations (SOLE) and their effect on firms’ investment...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

On the one hand, recently a number of theoretical models have highlighted the role of credit market frictions in propagating and amplifying macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, it still seems an open question whether this role is quantitatively significant. Our paper tries to fill this gap....

The real business cycle (RBC) model pioneered by Kydland and Prescott (1982) was a fundamental step to understand business cycles. This literature, in general, claims that aggregate technology shocks are the main ingredient to explain these fluctuations. However, in order to match various...

We compare local and global polynomial solution methods for DSGE models with Epstein- Zin-Weil utility. We show that model implications for macroeconomic quantities are relatively invariant to choice of solution method but that a global method can yield substantial improve- ments for asset...

This paper develops a real business cycle model characterized by idiosyncratic employment shocks and quantitatively explores the behavior of aggregate variables under the assumptions of complete and incomplete insurance markets. The results show that the model with incomplete markets produces...

Within a general equilibrium framework à la (Long and Plosser, 1983), we investigate the dynamics emerging from the interactions of households and firms that are adaptive price setters and financially constrained. Adaptive price-setting behavior induces micro-founded out-of-equilibrium dynamics...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...