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(i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are … assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of … violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty. …
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decision making, it generalizes the von Neumann–Morgenstern theory by including additional tiers of uncertainty. In this model …This paper introduces a new model of decision making under uncertainty. Aiming to provide a more realistic depiction of … formulated in the phantom space using phantom numbers. The degree of uncertainty, determined by the decision maker’s beliefs, is …
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, probability and statistics, aggregation of preferences, games and equilibria, free markets, and rationality and emotions. Online … choice theory. It draws on formal theories of microeconomics, decision making, games, and social choice, and on ideas … developed in philosophy, psychology, and sociology. Itzhak Gilboa argues that economic theory has provided a set of powerful …
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A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
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The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
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