Two approaches have been used for designing spatial surveys to detect a target. The classical approach controls the probability of missing a target that exists; a Bayesian approach controls the probability that a target exists given that none was seen. In both cases, information about the likely...

Consider the model where particles are initially distributed on Zd,d≥2, according to a Poisson point process of intensity λ0, and are moving in continuous time as independent simple symmetric random walks. We study the escape versus detection problem, in which the target, initially placed at...

Abstract Most scientists consider randomized experiments to be the best method available to establish causality. On the Internet, during the past twenty-five years, randomized experiments have become common, often referred to as A/B testing. For practical reasons, much A/B testing does not use...

Abstract We investigate estimation and inference of the (local) average treatment effect parameter when a binary instrumental variable is generated by a randomized or conditionally randomized experiment. Under i.i.d. sampling, we show that adding covariates and their interactions with the...

Abstract In this paper, we study a credit risk (collateral) management scheme for the Canadian retail payment system designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member. We estimate ex ante the size of a collateral pool large enough to cover exposure for a historical worst-case default...

Abstract By making gathering large samples of data (Big Data) almost trivial, the Information Revolution has changed fundamentally how many scientists now conduct empirical research. The explosion in the variety and volume of information that is Big Data has in many cases altered both the...

In his presidential address before the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM) fall research conference in early November, Mathematica CEO Paul Decker explored the nexus between policymaking, public management, and evidence-based research.

The newest digital technologies - among them social media, mobility, analytics and cloud - keep changing how people, businesses and governments interact. These digital forces enable unprecedented levels of connectedness and so the world is already investing in consumer-centricity. However, these...

This paper re-conceptualizes the planning process in the big data era based on the improvements that non-linear modeling approaches provide over the mainstream linear approaches. First, it demonstrates challenges of conventional linear methodologies in modeling complexities of residential energy...

The internet and Social Media have been playing a vital role in almost everyone’s communication and interactions. The same holds true for a company’s two-way communication with its consumers. This tremendous flow of information can drastically increase any company’s exposure to its...