Untersuchungen zur Prognosegüte sollten nicht nur Prognosefehler, die auf der Schätzung der Parameter beruhen berücksichtigen, sondern auch solche, die aus der stichprobenabhängigen Auswahl des Prognosemodells resultieren. Wird die Prognosefehlervarianz durch rekursive Out-of-Sample...

The WIFO Business Cycle Survey serves as an important early-indication tool for the economic situation in Austria. Using a Markov regime-switching model, it is possible to determine at an early point in time whether the business cycle is in its upward or downward mode. Regime probabilities are...

We compare the forecasting ability of the ifo-business expectations and ZEW-business expectations for the German industrial production in detail. Both are qualitative monthly surveys. While the ifo indicator is based on surveys of enterprises, the ZEW polls financial analysts from banks,...

WIFO has been conducting its Business Cycle Survey since 1954. Today, some 1,600 businesses, with altogether more than 200,000 employees, are participating in the survey. The findings of the survey are analysed to obtain leading indicators of the state of the Austrian economy. The analysis shows...